Play-off Probabilities – 1 Game Left


With a win by the favoured Golden Bears 

Will Dejon Burdeaux and the ‘Horns upset the Bears?                   photo- UL Athletics

We present 2 possibilities for play-off seeding, with just the 1 game remaining in regular season play.  The first, shown below, has the Bears winning tonight’s home game / Senior Night vs Lethbridge. You see the results, as calculated using the Rating Percentage Index to order the 12 playoff teams.  (Mt. Royal was tied in Won -Loss with Thompson Rivers, but lose in a tie-breaker.  TRU won a game over Manitoba, while MRU had 2 close losses). The Cougars and Wolf-Pack did not meet in the regular season.


The RPI re-shuffles the standings based on the relative strength of schedules.  Teams play very different slates of games, and this is a ‘common’ way of recognizing the inequity of various schedules. (As confusing and frustrating as it might be for some teams and fans).

  • UBC is 19-1, but their schedule was among the ‘softest’ when the stats are in. So the T-Birds drop to the 4 seed
  • Alberta’s schedule is among the toughest, and they get a boost, with a 15-5 record, up to the #1 seed.
  • You’ll also note the 11-9 Fraser Valley Cascades, are 10th seed, while the 8-12 TRU Wolf-Pack are 9, and Brandon, at 9-11 finish way up in 7th.   (RPI folks !)

But, what if, for some reason, Lethbridge wins vs Alberta tonight ?

Then, we have some changes, and not only at the top.  We still have the same 12 play-off teams, but with some re-shuffling with RPI tweaks for every team.

  • Calgary jumps over Alberta to the #1 seed, and the Bears drop to #3, with Saskatchewan bumping up to #4.
  • Winnipeg moves into the #7 position, and Brandon to #8.

All this means that we get some different play-off match-ups in some cases.  It also means that the Dinos have the inside -track to hosting the Final 4, assuming they can win a quarter-final series.   Here’s the new play-off grid, if the ‘Horns knock off the Bears in tonight’s final League contest. (*** Note –  Lethbridge will be the #6 seed, regardless of tonights result).

There’s all sorts of intrigue with these possible match-ups, and the site for the Final 4 can, of course, be crucial to the outcome.



6 thoughts on “Play-off Probabilities – 1 Game Left

  1. If you look at the records of the top four teams against one another, it paints an odd picture. AB, SASK played 6 games. UBC and UC didn’t play each other so played only four v AB and SASK. Only UBC had a winning record at 3-1. AB had worst record at 2-4. And yet…..AB seeded #1 and UBC #4. When do we count the electoral college votes?

  2. So, I’m curious what would have happened if UBC went 20-0? I’m assuming that coaches don’t choose their conference schedules, so what can a coach do if he knows the best his team can do is come 2nd or 3rd, even if they win all their games? Whose bright idea was this anyway?? I mean, I’m all for the Dinos being the number 1 seed, but the whole thing is a little embarassing for everyone, no?

    • Asked previously and answered. Yes, UBC could have gone 20-0, and, based on strength of schedule, their RPI would still not have been high enough for a #1 seed. It is, as we’ve said, very tough to devise a reasonable and suitable schedule for one 17 team League. We think they need 2 Divisions.

  3. Wow, looks like AB intentionally tried to tank there last game vs Lethbridge sitting there starters but ended up in 2OT before losing. Seems like AB chose to play Sask in Final 4 in Calgary instead of playing UBC at home, weak.

  4. Lethbridge would likely rather have played Saskatchewan than Alberta again, so they didn’t want to win. Alberta would rather meet up with Saskatchewan in the semi for one game to go to Halifax, rather than UBC, so they didn’t want to win. I feel that having that game on Sunday makes it unfair. Perhaps next season, Canada West should make the schedule similar to the final day of the EPL and MLB – every team starts their final game at the same time (say, 8:00 Central/7:00 Mountain/6:00 Pacific) so that nobody has an advantage knowing a prior result, thus ending up with games such as this.

  5. Hey Canada West,
    In what leagues would the best four teams sit on the sidelines for 10 or more days? Seeds 1-4 are missing a weekend in the heat of the season where the game could be promoted. Yes, there are four CW series going on this weekend but the absence of UC, AB, SASK and UBC is a real missed opportunity. Fans in the biggest markets in western Canada are sitting on their hands this weekend. CW has the potential to be the best league in the country but the flawed playoff system and the catastrophic RPI concept are backward steps.

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