The Mathematicians Take Over !

 

 

What just happened ?      

Calgary Dinos Coach, Dan Vanhooren

 UBC wins big 2 nights running, and are 17-1 … their RPI index, however, falls from .6450 to         .6172.  Tragique ! 

Saskatchewan and Alberta split their big series, and they both drop slightly.  Calgary wins 2 on the road against a pretty good TRU team, and the Dinos tumble to 4th spot, as the RPI dips by 72 points.   Ugh !

Manitoba loses both games at Brandon, but remains (forever, apparently) in 5th.  Winnipeg wins 2 at home, and go to 6th, up 62 points.  Nice !  Lethbridge was just sitting around , watching the heavy snowfall, and go up a few points, and into 7th.

Brandon made the biggest news, in many ways.  Coach Gil Cheung and his boys come from 3-7 at the Christmas break, to win 6 games and grab a play-off spot at 9-11.  This includes a group of 10 players back from a team that went 1-19 in the previous season.  Well-done, lads .

 

Fraser Valley got the sweep over UVic, and have vaulted themselves into the post-season, while putting the Vikes’ chances in jeopardy.  Victoria comes home to play Winnipeg, and need 2 wins to guarantee a spot, and 1 to have any chance.  MRU,  Regina, Victoria, and MacEwan  are all in dire need of at least that 1 win.  Then the mathematicians take over.

 

What we think we know – 

Martin Timmerman, ‘The man, the myth, the legend’ !

Thanks to Martin Timmerman’s  U-Sports  RPI ‘what-if’ tool for all of this ‘clarity’ in examining the possibilities.  Alberta, Calgary, Saskatchewan, and UBC will be the top 4 seeds.  But not necessarily in that order.  The Huskies or Dinos could be #1, but Alberta has the inside track, especially if they sweep Lethbridge up in Edmonton this week.  The (presumably) 19-1 UBC T’Birds will not be the top seed.

Manitoba will be the 5th seed.  (Even losing 2 to MRU)

From here it gets ‘somewhat jumbled’, as each series is factored in.   Lethbridge can be 6th – 8th, Winnipeg from 6th to 9th.  Brandon are in, with 9 wins, and can be 7th to 9th.

Despite a strong possibility of finishing at 11-9, the UFV Cascades are likely to be 9-10-11-12, but they look to be a lock for the post-season.

That leaves Thompson Rivers  (7th to out !) , Mt Royal, Regina, Victoria, and MacEwan hanging not only by the results of their own games, but of all the other series.  A foreseeable scenario has 2 or more of these teams tied for the final play-off spot(s).  If this is the case, we get the Canada West tie-breakers in play.

CW Tie-breaking rules –          Two Teams Tied:

1. Win/Loss record in head to head competition.

2. Win/Loss record versus common opponents.

3. Each teams RPI ranking.

There are others, but the RPI should sort it out, if necessary.

Three or More Teams Tied:   Use the same procedure as a two‐teams tied. Once one team has been separated from the tied group, go back to step one with the remaining tied team(s).

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Jamar Farley is hot for the Wesmen on Saturday –  photo – Kelly Morton

5 Top Performers from Last Weekend –

Manny Dulay’s 36 point night on Friday for UFV vs Victoria

Conor Morgan matches that on Friday for UBC vs UNBC

Brandon’s Earl Thompson  Jr 40 pts/22 rebs  and  John Paul  30 pts/ 27 boards, as the ‘Cats take a pair from Manitoba

Thadius Galvez hits for 25 pts/ 8 rebs in Senior Night win over UBC-O

Jamar Farley also has a big Senior Night with 22 pts with 6 treys vs Regina

 

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Overtime – 

  • Fraser Valley’s high scoring senior guard , Manny Dulay after the weekend’s wins over UVic, “Usually seniors would be like, ‘OK, it’s my night to shine,’ but I took the approach of, ‘I want to focus on the win,’” Dulay said. “I felt like I had to move the ball because I knew they were going to be extra-aggressive on me, and guys started stepping up – from Denver (Sparks-Guest) to Andrew (Morris) to Mark (Johnson) to Vijay (Dhillon). It was a whole different game from yesterday. Guys were ready to shoot, guys were ready to attack. It was amazing to see.”  From Dan Kinvig, UFV Athletics
  • This is serious ….

  • With all the ‘foo-fa-rah’ about the final RPI seedings, we thought we’d  point out that ‘everybody has problems’.  A shout-out to our golf buddies who are renting places on Vancouver Island, so they can escape the winter and play a few rounds in January, February, and March.   ‘What’s with the snow on our golf course !’  Talk about hard-ship !

 

 

Fear of the RPI

 

Manitoba is #1 Seed ?!     …     Blame the RPI

 

If the play-offs were decided today …

Of course, we can’t do this, with some teams having only 8 games completed, and some with 10, with many more left to play. What we do see are 3 teams which are separating themselves from ‘the masses’. Alberta, UBC, and Calgary are looking like the 3 likely top seeds come late February.  But wait !  If they are at the top of the standings after the 20 game schedule is in the books, are they the top 3 seeds for play-offs?

Not necessarily.  With this ‘imbalanced’ 17 team League, with big differences in schedules, it was decided that a ‘balancing effect’ was needed to seed the 12 play-off qualifiers on the basis of the quality of their opposition.  We present the RPI.  A measure combining each team’s winning % (1/4), the winning %s of their 10 opponents (1/2), and the winning %s of the opponents of those opponents (1/4).

We have the current RPI ratings ( provided by our  cis hoops  stats guru, Martin Timmerman.)  Open the above link, and you get a more complete look at the RPI rating system.    Today  we would get  1. Manitoba, 2.Alberta, 3. Calgary, 4.UBC  in the bye spots.  Then,     5. TRU, 6. Winnipeg, 7. Lethbridge, 8.Saskatchewan, 9. UNBC, 10. Mt. Royal, 11. Regina, and 12. Fraser Valley.

“The top 12 teams based on winning percentage will earn post-season berths, with playoff ranking based on each team’s Rating Percentage Index (RPI) from the regular season. RPI will be used in order to account for the various strengths of schedule.”  (So say the League ‘regs’) “The top four teams based on RPI will receive a bye in the first week of the playoffs.”

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Bisons tough schedule boosts their RPI

The startling ‘Manitoba Effect’, due to the winning records of their very strong opponents in the 1st semester, will largely balance itself off in the upcoming 2nd half.  But there will, undoubtedly, be some consternation when the RPI re-shuffles play-off positions. A ‘top 4 team’ losing out on a 1st round bye would be pleading injustice.

But this is what you get when you adopt an ‘All-17 team League’.  Schools had options to break into 2 Divisions, but voted for the 17 .  Ergo … the whimsical effect of the RPI.


 

Overtime –

nipissing

  • From the OUA, we note the rise of one of their newest school’s, Nipissing Lakers, whose weekend road sweep at Waterloo and Laurier brought them to 3-5 in league play.  Here is the story from canhoops.ca and ‘Junkie’, Mark Wacyck, Ottawa-based ‘super-blogger’.
  • Fraser Valley Coach Adam Friesen, after the Cascades’ road win Saturday at Brandon, “We’ve been struggling, and the guys, to their credit, have really worked, stuck together, kept grinding and figured out a way to have some success,” Friesen said. “I’m glad they were able to get a win heading into the Christmas break.”  From Dan Kinvig, UFV Athletics.

Huskies Cage Cougars

 

 

Big rebounding edge gives the Huskies a lift

Shane Osayande leads the Huskies in their win at Regina Friday.

Shane Osayande leads the Huskies in their win at Regina Friday.  photo – Huskies Athletics

Saskatchewan 77  at Regina  53 –  Saskatchewan (5-2) gets game 1 in the Prairie battle in Regina, but the prettiest thing about this one were the Huskies rebound stats.  Chan De Ciman was ‘slacking off’ with just 6 boards, with the other 4 starters at 9, 9,10, and 10, while Emmanuel Akintunde scoops a team high 11 in his 17 minutes off the bench.  68 boards for the ‘Dogs vs 38 for the Cougars.  With the 25% FG shooting from Regina (4-3), and a cool 34% from the winners there were a ton available.  Shane Osayande leads U of S with 22 pts/ 10 boards, and Matt Forbes counts 20 pts/9 rebs.   Brandon Tull is a lone Cougar in double figurees with 12 points.     Box Score   

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 at Brandon 101  Fraser Valley  84  –  The Bobcats hit the century mark for the first time this season, as they pile up 54 in the 2nd half.  Brandon  shoots 49% from the field, with 12/26 (46%) from 3 point range in the game. The ‘Cats, now 3-6, forced 18 Cascades turnovers, and had all 5 starters score 12 pts+. Earl Thompson Jr. had another good outing for BU, hitting 26 pts/ 13 rebounds, while Chris Stanhope scored 18, and Tyvon Cooper had 17.  UFV (2-5) shot only 33% on the night;  their top man was Denver Sparks- Guest, who came off the bench for 21 points.     Box Score  

Lethbridge 89 at Trinity Western 81 –  Lethbridge come back after trailing early, and they go to 5-4, while Trinity drops to 2-7.  Mike Pierzchala and Zac Overwater both score 24 for the ‘Horns, while Vartan Tanielian leads the Spartans with 21. Box Score

 

  Thompson Rivers  87  at UNBC 81  –  Playing without their top offensive threat, an injured Rhys Elliot, the Timberwolves got an amazing 39 point team effort in the 4th quarter, but couldn’t make up for the 69-42 deficit after 3/4s.  The Wolf Pack shot a surgical 55% from the floor, led by Volodymyr Iegorov’s 23 points/ 5 rebs/ 6 assts. UNBC get 22 points from import Austin Chandler, but shoot just 36% themselves. They rally in the late stages with 12 treys (vs 5 for TRU) and 25/30 from the line. The ‘Pack improve to 4-5, now tied with the T’Wolves.  Box Score 

at  #2 UBC  100  UBC- Okanagan  64 –  The Thunderbirds (7-0) finished in a punishing 53-32 fashion, as the visiting Heat (1-8) hung in to as close as 14 points late in the 3rd quarter,  but were overwhelmed.  UBC’s  Conor Morgan takes over the Canada West scoring lead with a 34 point night, and Jordan Jensen-Whyte adds 20 pts/ 5 steals. Mitch Goodwin led UBC-O with 15 pts, and Aldrich Berrios tallied 9 pts/ 7 boards.  Key stats –  29 Heat turnovers vs 12 for the ‘Birds, and  33/41 free throws for the home side against  16/22 for UBC.   Box Score 


 

Other U-Spots games Friday

 Quebec-  Concordia  72  at UQAM 65

 Carleton Coach, Dave Smart, in the huddle with his Ravens, during their game with Brock tonight .

Carleton Coach, Dave Smart, in the huddle with his Ravens, during their game with Brock tonight .   photo –  Ron Wuotila for Canada West Hoops

Ontario –  at  #1 Carleton 80  #5 Brock 68,  at #4  Ottawa 79  #7  McMaster 59,  Algoma 76  at York 73 , Nipissing 83  at Waterloo  78,  at  Laurier 81 Laurentian 75


 

Overtime –

  • Why do coaches develop ‘eye-tics’ and other nervous afflictions?  Well, one reason may be the Canada West playoff tie-breaking system.  This process takes place after all League games are done in February, but is cause for concern even now.  Here are the first 3 criteria . 1. Win/Loss record in head to head competition. 2. Win/Loss record versus common opponents. 3. Each team’s RPI ranking.  We are not likely to go beyond this RPI, but we may well get to it.  The Rating % Index is a complicated formula to judge a team based on their winning percentage, that of their League opponents, and of their  opponents’  opponents .   At present here are some RPIs … Manitoba 3W-6L – .6042 RPI = 3rd in Canada West  ?!  …   Regina 4W-3L – .4218 RPI  = 14th in the CW RPI !!  More to come.  Oh … #1 Carleton Ravens are 9-0 vs all CIS opponents, and 9th in the National RPI ranking.
  • Our continuing thanks and appreciation for the amazing work done by Martin Timmerman (Waterloo, ON) on his web-site   cishoops.ca  .  Schedules, results, team information, league standings across the country, and an absolute wealth of statistics, records, and salient facts about Canadian University Basketball. ( Martin, you ‘Da Dog’ !)
  • Is the 3 point shot ‘ruining the game’  or making it more exciting ? Let’s
    MRU's Josh Ross fires a deep one for 3 points !

    MRU’s Josh Ross fires a deep one for 3 points !    photo-  MRU Athletics

    look at some stats and recent results …  9-0 Alberta are the leading 3 point shooting team in Canada West @ 43.9% , then Calgary (6-1) @39.9%, but UBC (6-0) are 13th in the League @30% from outside the arc!  The 4-2 Saskatchewan Huskies just 29.8%, which is well below the UBC-O Heat (1-7), who shoot 35.1% on 3s. In Thursday’s Calgary win (87-83) at Mt. Royal, the Dinos were 50.8% from the floor, but 3/17 (17.6%) from 3 pt range.  The smaller Cougars (especially after their 6-8 post man, Brett Layton was injured early on) used the 3 point shot as a primary focus of their attack.  MRU were only 37% from the floor, but, of those 70 shots, 31 were from outside, and they made 12 for 38.7% and 36 very valuable points!  (And the fans seemed pretty excited ….)

 

 

Recruiting News – Critical Roster Building

 

 

Canada West Teams Busy With Recent Signings –

5th year seniors Wyatt Anders (Bisons) , Matt Letkeman , and Josh Owen -Thomas (Dinos) shown in recent playoff action, will leave opportuninties for new recruits at Manitoba and Calgary this Fall. photo - UM Athletics

5th year senior graduates,  Wyatt Anders (Bisons)  and Matt Letkeman   (Dinos)  , shown in recent playoff action, will leave opportunities for new recruits at Manitoba and Calgary this Fall.  photo – UM Athletics

Manitoba Coach, Kirby Schepp announced the signingof local Winnipeg high school stars, Cameron O’Hara, a 6-7 post man from St. Paul’s HS, and James Wagner, a 6-7 forward from John Taylor Collegiate, who talks about his move to the Bisons for next season,   in this Winnipeg Free Press article by Alana Trachenko .  

> The Fraser Valley Cascades add 3 ‘blue-chip’ recruits for the coming Fall. 

Daniel Adediran, Pacific Academy (Surrey), will suit up for UFV. - photo - Surrey Leader

Daniel Adediran, Pacific Academy (Surrey), will suit up for UFV. – photo – Surrey Leader

Andrew Morris, a B.C. College all-star with Capilano College transfers in, and high school stars, Daniel Adediran, Pacific Academy (Surrey)  and Sagar Dulay,  Tamanawis (Surrey).  More details in this story from Dan Kinvig, UFV Athletics
Trinity Western coach Aaron Muhic signed guard Josiah Meppelink (Langley), who joins the Spartans via Lynden, Wash. The 6-foot-3, 160-pound Meppelink, who moved from Langley to Lynden when he was 12 years old, averaged eight points, 10 assists and six rebounds per game this past season at Lynden Christian School. In his Grade 12 year, Meppelink was also named to the All-NWC (Northwest Conference) Second Team. From TWU Athletics

Calgary Dinos Coach, Dan Vanhooren, has already signed import guard, 6-4 Max Eisle from Ulm, Germany, and the intensely recruited Jeff Rodehutskers, an exceptionally talented 6-8 forward from Chestermere High School (Alberta).

 

Lethbridge Coach, Mike Hanson,  previously announced the signing of 6-4 guard, Scott Mazutinec, from Stirling HS in S. Alberta, and Mark Rodehutskers, the 6-4  younger brother of Jeff.  Mark, who was academically accelerated in grade school, will graduate from Chestermere HS this June as well.

 

UBC Head Coach, Kevin Hanson, has landed 2 highly sought-after high school athletes in Parker Simson, a 6-3 guard (and football prospect) from Kelowna Sr. Sec., and Izaiah Ugoalah, a 6-5 guard from Sir W. Churchill (Vancouver).

 

> UVic Coach, Craig Beaucamp, has been busy with 3 signees … transfer guard , Wayne Tucker, a 6-1 import from Oakland , CA  via Olds College (Alberta) … a 2nd import guard, 6-1 Scott Kellam, Issaquah HS, WA, and a 6-5 wing man, Vladislav Zasmolin, from Sir W. Churchill HS, Calgary.

> Regina Head Coach, Steve Burrows, is surely delighted with the fact that he has signed 3 local stars to play for his Cougars next Fall . 6-2 guards, Ben Hillis and Brayden Kuski, along with 6-4 forward, Carter Millar, all played at LeBoldus High School, Regina.   Details in this story from UR Athletics .

> In a 17 team CW League, it can be a big ask to ‘capture the Cup’.  If you don’t win your last game, do you have to see the season as a failure?  Well, obviously not !  There are many victories and moments to celebrate along the way, as this story from the UM ‘The Manitoban’ does so well .

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> The CIS announced their dates and venues for the next 2 years for the Final 8 National Tournament –  The Championships will be held back in Halifax in the the Spring of both 2017 (March 9-12) and 2018 (March 8-11).  This is a week earlier than it was this season.  We are back to traditional dates, and will not conflict with the First and Second rounds of the NCAA Tournament. (Smart move on the dates … not sure about a one year deal for UBC, but maybe the cost – risk is too high ?)

>  April, for most CIS coaches, is a time when they are either wrapping up their recruiting for the coming Fall season, or they’re still busy attempting to build or re-build their roster with ‘late signings’.  UBC T-Birds Football Coach, Blake Nill, a seasoned recruiting guru says, “You have to have made the initial contact with the student athlete probably in their grade 10 year or at least in their grade 11 year,” said Nill, as he explained the traditional timeline for athletics recruitment today. “ So you can get the process [started] and give it enough time to develop the relationship that you need.” More reflections on the recruiting process in this article by Olamide Olaniyan in The Ubyssey.

> We have a new source for CIS recruiting news from a favourite web-site – Martin Timmerman, who does such a great job with all things CIS Basketball at cishoops.ca has added an up-to-date recruiting info page, which was sorely needed, with the retirement of long-time ‘primo-source’ Barry Hayes.  Check out this recruiting page at CIS Hoops